In many developing countries, inland waterways act as essential routes for transporting passengers and goods, especially in urban and nearby areas. Calderón et al. [7] established that ferry systems are cost-effective, use less energy, and can ease the strain on crowded road networks [8]. However, their operation in Africa often faces serious safety issues, poor infrastructure, and weak regulation [9]. In Nigeria, ferry transport is underdeveloped, even though the country has extensive coastal and inland water systems [10]. While cities like Lagos have taken steps to improve water transport, many people still worry about safety and the reliability of services.

Passenger perception plays a crucial role in how people use and accept ferry transport services. Studies like Tinali and Temba [11], Ola Aiyegbajeje et al. [4], and Mohammed et al. [2] show that safety, comfort, affordability, and reliability are the key factors influencing passenger choices in water transport. Akpudo [10] discovered that 68% of ferry users in Lagos were unhappy with safety protocols. They pointed to poor emergency preparedness and a lack of life-saving equipment. Imorataria et al. [12] perceived risks, such as overloading, mechanical failure, and unpredictable weather, impact ridership levels and affect public trust in the ferry system. Furthermore, studies indicate that perceptions are influenced not only by real experiences but also by media coverage of ferry accidents and past incidents [13].

The rules governing ferry transport in Nigeria are marked by overlapping responsibilities, uneven enforcement, and disjointed policy development [12]. Institutions like LASWA, NIMASA, and NIWA share different levels of responsibility. This often causes conflicts or gaps in regulation. For instance, NIMASA looks after maritime safety at the national level while LASWA manages Lagos waterways. However, the cooperation between these agencies is often weak. This results in inconsistencies in inspection, licensing, and accident reporting. Studies of transport policy in Singapore by Olisa [13] reveal a unified, centralized approach combining land-use planning, regulation, and public transport investment to shape mobility trends, reducing car dependency and improving coherence across transport. Similarly, in Portugal, projects like PORTMOS and analyses of transport infrastructure PPPs show that when legal/regulatory frameworks are clearly defined and institutions are aligned, maritime/transport interventions are more effectively governed [14].

Operational efficiency in ferry transport includes aspects such as punctuality, vessel maintenance, crew training, route reliability, and ticketing systems. Poor operational performance is commonly reported in Nigeria due to aging fleets, manual scheduling, and a lack of performance standards [15]. Studies like Olayinka Yusuf et.al [16] in Nigeria indicate that a large number of ferry (or motorboat) operators lack formal training or certification, and that many maintenance practices are reactive rather than preventive, contributing to frequent safety lapses. This leads to mechanical failures and a higher risk of accidents. In contrast, ferry systems in developed countries have implemented performance tracking with digital dashboards, predictive maintenance, and automatic route monitoring to improve reliability [13].

Global literature on ferry safety and performance offers insights that apply to Nigeria. For instance, in Singapore, real-time monitoring systems use Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to track vessel conditions and predict hazards [16]. In India and Indonesia, regulatory changes have streamlined licensing, safety training, and route planning. These improvements boost public confidence in ferry transport. These countries show that using passenger feedback, introducing new technology, and having strong leadership are essential for transforming ferry systems. Nigeria can gain by adopting these principles and adjusting them to local economic, social, and infrastructure realities. Based on this review, the literature identifies three main themes: 1) ferry safety in Nigeria suffers from weak institutional enforcement and low operational standards; 2) user perceptions are shaped by actual safety conditions and a lack of communication from authorities; and 3) international practices highlight the importance of technology, regulatory consistency, and public involvement. However, there is limited research that combines stakeholder perceptions, policy review, and operational metrics within a single framework. Most existing studies examine these dimensions separately, missing how policies influence practices and how perceptions reflect performance outcomes. This study addresses this gap by using a mixed-methods approach to gather data from users, operators, and regulators in Nigeria’s ferry transport system.

Table 1 shows the demographic characteristics of the respondents surveyed at selected ferry terminals in Lagos State. The gender distribution is nearly equal, with 53% male and 47% female respondents. This indicates a balanced gender representation among ferry users. The age distribution reveals that most respondents belong to the economically active groups: 26 to 35 years (34%) and 36 to 45 years (41%). Together, these groups make up 75% of the total sample. This suggests that working adults mainly use ferry transport, reinforcing its importance for daily commuting and business travel. Occupational data show that 38% of respondents work in the private sector, while 35% are traders or businesspersons. This indicates a strong reliance on ferry services for economic activities. Civil servants account for 18% of respondents, and students make up a small 4%. This suggests that ferry usage is less common among those commuting for education. These demographic findings support the decision to target high-traffic ferry routes. They also highlight that ferry operations are crucial for urban mobility and economic activity in Lagos. The significant presence of economically active individuals stresses the importance of addressing operational and safety issues since service failures can directly affect productivity and income.

Table 2 highlights passenger behavior regarding ferry usage frequency and trip purposes. The results show that ferry services are not just occasional options; they are essential for many Lagos residents. A total of 54% of respondents use ferries either daily (23%) or weekly (31%). This indicates a strong reliance on water-based transport for regular commuting. Additionally, 30% of users report occasional use, and only 1% are first-time users. This suggests that ferry ridership remains stable but is not significantly growing among new users. The analysis of trip purposes emphasizes the economic role of ferry transport. A substantial 60.32% of trips are for business, while 26.95% are for work commutes. Together, these account for nearly 87% of all trips, confirming that ferry services are mainly used for income-generating activities. Only 10.91% of users reported using ferries for leisure or tourism, while trips for studies and other reasons were minimal (0.28% and 1.47%, respectively). These findings match the insights from ferry operators and regulatory officials, who noted that operational planning is mainly driven by peak-hour demand linked to economic activities. The low percentage of first-time users may indicate a broader issue of public trust, especially concerning safety. This theme emerged in both passenger surveys and key interviews.

The results from Table 3 show serious concerns about safety communication, equipment availability, and personal security while using ferry services. Only 42% of respondents said safety instructions were given before or during their trips, while 49% reported that no instructions were provided. Another 9% were unsure, indicating inconsistency in communication among routes and operators. This points to a failure to enforce basic safety briefings, which are essential in passenger transport. An alarming finding was the reported availability of life-saving equipment like life jackets. Nearly half of the respondents (47%) said life jackets were never available during their journeys, while only 15% confirmed that such equipment was always provided. These numbers reveal lapses in regulatory enforcement and operator compliance with safety standards. When asked about their overall sense of safety using ferry services in Nigeria, 68% of passengers expressed doubt about the system (47% strongly disagreed, and 21% disagreed). Only 19% felt safe. This insecurity is further reflected in views on crew readiness. A combined 70% of respondents either strongly disagreed or disagreed that ferry staff were well-trained in emergency procedures. These results support qualitative findings from interviews with regulatory officials, which pointed to insufficient training, poor oversight, and fragmented coordination as major contributors to ongoing safety risks. The data highlight the urgent need for reforms in passenger safety communication, required safety equipment, and professional crew certification.

Are life jackets or safety equipment made available Always Sometimes Never Don’t know 15% 31% 47% 7% I feel safe when using the ferry service in Nigeria Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree 47% 21% 13% 13% 6% Ferry staff are well-trained in emergency procedures Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree 47% 23% 14% 10% 6%

Table 4 looks at users’ experiences with ferry timeliness, service quality, and the use of modern technology. About 65% of passengers said that ferries were either always (31%) or often (34%) on time, showing a moderate level of schedule reliability. However, a significant number (36%) reported inconsistent timing, with occasional delays or rarely arriving on schedule. This highlights the unpredictability of many ferry services in Nigeria. When it comes to the boarding and disembarkation process, 83% of respondents rated it as either very organized (33%) or fairly organized (50%). This indicates that while there is some structural efficiency at terminals, there is still room for improvement in crowd management, signage, and flow control. Passenger satisfaction with the cleanliness and comfort of the ferries was modest. Only 21% rated their experience as excellent, while a larger portion (36%) gave it a ‘fair’ rating. This suggests variability in service quality and points to the need for set cleanliness standards and maintenance schedules. Notably, more than half of the respondents (51%) felt that ferry staff were not helpful, while only 30% viewed the staff as professional and supportive. This is a serious concern for service quality that could further damage public trust. On a more positive note, many respondents reported the use of technology in ferry operations. A significant 89% of passengers noticed the use of modern technologies like GPS, electronic ticketing, and onboard announcement systems. Additionally, 98% supported real-time GPS tracking of ferry operations, and 90% (a mix of “likely” and “very likely”) were willing to use ferries equipped with AI-based safety alert systems. These responses show a strong interest among users in adopting technological innovations to improve safety, efficiency, and service quality.

Table 5 offers a detailed view of ferry operators’ thoughts and practices regarding safety in Lagos State's inland waterway system. The data shows that most respondents were captains (15), with additional input from crew members (4) and managers (6). Notably, no ferry owners participated directly, which suggests a possible separation between ownership and the day-to-day operations. Many respondents (12 out of 29) reported having 4 to 7 years of experience, but only 8 had more than 7 years. The lack of respondents with under one year of experience indicates a workforce with a fair amount of experience. The study finds that only 2 operators reported doing maintenance weekly, and 5 performed it monthly. Alarmingly, 13 admitted to maintaining their ferries “only when they break down,” while 5 had no regular maintenance schedule. These reactive or unplanned maintenance practices reflect the high rate of mechanical failure noted in ferry accident data Fig. 1, highlighting concerns over vessel reliability and the effectiveness of regulatory enforcement. Additionally, the provision of safety equipment was inconsistent. While most operators 13 claimed always to provide life-saving gear like life jackets and fire extinguishers, seven said they did so only “sometimes,” and 5 provided them “rarely.” Although none claimed never to offer safety equipment, the irregular availability of these essential tools poses a real risk to passenger safety in emergencies. Responses regarding training reveal major shortcomings. Only five operators reported having received formal safety or navigation training, while another five had not received any training at all. A significant majority relied on informal or on-the-job learning. This supports findings from Ateme [18], who argued that informal navigation methods and inadequate training continue to threaten water transport safety in Nigeria. Inspections by regulatory bodies also seem to happen infrequently. Only one operator experienced regular inspections (weekly or monthly), while most 15 reported occasional inspections, and nine rarely saw regulatory oversight. This lack of engagement from enforcement bodies like LASWA, NIWA, and NIMASA highlights broader institutional weaknesses that contribute to a poor safety culture in the sector. These findings align with insights from stakeholder interviews, which consistently pointed to fragmented inter-agency efforts and inadequate enforcement capacity. Operators voiced strong dissatisfaction with the fairness and consistency of regulatory enforcement. Eighteen out of 26 respondents either disagreed or strongly disagreed that ferry regulation is fair or consistent, while only three agreed. Moreover, operators’ evaluations of passenger safety on their routes varied: only 5 rated their routes as “very safe,” 12 considered them “somewhat safe,” and 8 labeled them as either “unsafe” or “very unsafe.” These self-assessments suggest a recognition of unsafe operating conditions.

How many years of experience do you have in ferry operations?

Less than 1 year 1 -3 years 4- 7 years Over 7 years 0 5 12 8 Operational Practices: How Often is Your Ferry Maintained Weekly Monthly Only when it No fixed schedule breaks down 2 5 13 5 Do You Provide Safety Equipment (Life Jackets, Fire Extinguishers) for Every Trip?

Yes, always Sometimes Rarely Never 13 7 5 0 Have You or Your Crew Received any Formal Safety or Navigation Training?

Yes, always No Only informal/on- the - training 5 5 15 How Often Are you Inspected by Regulatory Authorities (e.g, LASWA, NIWA, NIMASA) Frequently Occasionally Rarely (weekly/monthly) 21 15 9 Do You Feel That Regulatory Enforcement in Ferry Operations is Fair and Consistent Strongly agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly disagree 0 3 5 10 8 How would you rate passenger safety on your route?

Very safe Somewhat safe Unsafe Very unsafe 5 12 3 5

The insights from passengers and operators highlight the significant challenges facing Nigeria’s inland waterway transport. According to Table 6, safety and security concerns, with an Overall RII of 0.978, stand out as the biggest issue. Passengers rank this highest (RII = 0.98), while operators place it ninth (RII = 0.64). This significant difference shows a disconnect in what each group values. Passengers are worried about immediate physical risks, like poorly fitted life jackets and an untrained crew.

On the other hand, operators focus on systemic problems, such as financial constraints (Operator RII = 1.09, ranked 1). This gap explains why safety reforms are hard to achieve. Operators, pressed for resources, often overlook safety spending unless regulations force them to comply. Inadequate infrastructure (Overall RII = 0.97) and aging fleets (Overall RII = 0.97) follow as the second and third largest challenges. These issues appear as poor terminal facilities, missing navigational aids, and unreliable vessels, all of which contribute to accidents (Fig. 1). Operators’ maintenance practices are reactive, with 52% performing maintenance only when breakdowns happen Table 5. The high cost of replacing vessels (Overall RII = 0.96) traps operators in a cycle of postponed maintenance. This problem is even worse because of Nigeria’s foreign exchange issues and reliance on imports in the maritime sector. Operators see financial constraints as their biggest hurdle (RII = 1.09), as they struggle with profitability, fuel prices, and gaining capital. This financial insecurity prevents them from investing in safety technologies, such as AI alerts and GPS, even though 90% of passengers support AI-enhanced ferries Table 4.

Additionally, regulatory weaknesses (Overall RII = 0.80) arise from broken oversight between LASWA, NIWA, and NIMASA, and inconsistent enforcement. Only 4% of operators report regular inspections Table 5, which allows overloading and mechanical neglect to persist and contribute to accidents Fig. 1. Low public confidence (Overall RII = 0.87) both causes and results from these failures. Passengers' lack of trust, fueled by their safety concerns (Table 3: 68% feel unsafe), stunts ridership growth (Table 2: 1% first-time users). Operators understand this issue (RII = 0.90) but often lack the resources to improve their services. This stagnation limits economies of scale and increases financial instability. These findings match research in other developing countries. Olisa [13] found that aging fleets and regulatory shortcomings are common barriers. Similarly, Idongesit et al. [18] confirmed that safety concerns deter ridership in Lagos. However, this study uniquely highlights how misaligned priorities between stakeholders contribute to policy paralysis. Without solutions that address both the need for safety and the financial relief operators seek, sustained progress is unlikely.

Fig. 1 provides an analysis of ferry accident causes in Lagos's inland waterways from 2010 to 2024. The data divides accidents into five main categories: mechanical failure, bad weather, overloading, human error, and poor navigation. A total of 100 incidents were recorded during this period. This section looks at these findings in relation to institutional practices, regulatory enforcement, and safety gaps within the sector. Mechanical failure was the leading cause of accidents, making up 24% of all incidents. This trend shows ongoing maintenance issues and highlights the limited enforcement of servicing protocols by agencies like the LASWA and the NIWA. Peaks in accidents related to mechanical failure were seen in 2015 and 2024, emphasizing the urgent need for standardized vessel inspections. These results are similar to prior research by Adebanjo (2019), which found that over 70% of ferry operators in Lagos lack formal training and often rely on outdated repair methods. Bad weather was the second most common cause, accounting for 21% of accidents, with notable increases in 2015 and 2017. This suggests there is not enough use of weather data in operational planning and that reliable communication systems to warn operators of dangerous conditions are lacking. The frequency of weather-related incidents reflects broader infrastructure issues in inland navigation, including the absence of radar, real-time weather forecasts, and protocols for rescheduling voyages. These findings align with international research that points to the importance of weather monitoring in ferry safety [13]. Overloading, responsible for 20% of accidents, continues to be a significant safety concern. The trend showed sharp rises in 2019 and 2024, indicating ongoing issues with enforcing capacity limits. Interviews with regulatory officials revealed that while vessel capacity is usually marked, there is little oversight to keep operators from exceeding these limits, especially during busy times. Economic factors and the lack of real-time monitoring tools often drive this behavior. The dangers of overloading are serious, as it can lead to vessel instability and capsizing, resulting in notable fatalities in Lagos's waterways.

Human error, at 19%, and poor navigation, at 16%, were also significant causes of ferry incidents. Human error includes mistakes in judgment, lack of training, and failure to follow safety guidelines. The consistent occurrence of human error over the years indicates weaknesses in training and certification systems for ferry crews. Although poor navigation has shown a slight decline since 2014, it remains an issue, particularly in poorly mapped or crowded areas. The absence of standardized route planning, signage, and navigational aids like buoys and beacons contributes to this problem. These findings are supported by Della et al. [19], who highlighted the risks posed by informal navigation systems. A broader look at the data shows that accident causes are often interconnected. For example, an overloaded vessel operating in bad weather with a defective engine and an untrained crew creates a high-risk situation. However, the classification used in Table 3 focuses on the leading cause reported in each incident, which might not fully capture the complex nature of actual accidents. The lack of a clear downward trend in accident rates, despite having multiple regulatory agencies, implies that coordination and enforcement remain weak. Overlaps in regulations, unclear roles, and poor data-sharing among LASWA, NIWA, and NIMASA lead to inconsistent safety results. Interviews with regulatory staff confirmed these institutional shortcomings, underscoring the need for a unified command structure or coordination platform among agencies.